Visualising the 2015/16 Eredivisie fixtures
The 2015/16 Eredivisie fixtures were released over the weekend, so
If you haven’t seen this before, what I’ve done is taken an average of leading bookmakers’ title odds (as a proxy for each club’s “strength”) and then divided the clubs four categories based on the bookies’ implied ranking. The categories aim to divide the clubs into four relatively equal-sized groups based on the range of odds they have been given to win the title.
This allows the fixtures of each club to be colour-coded as per the graphic below, which can be clicked to bring up a full-sized version:
The point of this is to help identify easy and tricky runs of fixtures which could cause clubs to surge or fall in the league table. Here are some observations to give you the idea:
- Both Cambuur & Willem II have tricky starts, playing three of their toughest opponents in the first five rounds of fixtures, while both AZ Alkmaar and Nijmegen have three of their easiest matches in this period. It shouldn’t be a surprise if the former start badly and the latter well.
- Groningen may enjoy a surge up the table just before the winter break, with four of their five fixtures immediately beforehand against unfancied opposition.
- Feyenoord could mount a late surge upwards as their last “tough” match is in mid-March, leaving only two moderately tricky encounters in their final seven fixtures.
How the clubs are grouped
The four groups of clubs, based on current odds and in descending order, are:
- Under 30/1 (4 clubs): PSV, Ajax, Feyenoord & Vitesse
- 40/1 to 180/1 (5 clubs): AZ Alkmaar, Twente, Heerenveen, Groningen & Zwolle
- 200/1 to 600/1 (4 clubs): Utrecht, Nijmegen, Willem II & Cambuur
- Over 600/1 (5 clubs): Den Haag, Heracles, Roda, Excelsior & De Graafschap
I’ll aim to revisit this nearer the start of the season when the odds will hopefully have moved to reflect each club’s activity in the transfer market and the categorisations can be revisited.