Updated probabilities, 13 Apr 2016

I’ve re-run my E Ratings model after the batch of midweek Football League and National League fixtures last night to see what effect they’ve had on where each club is predicted to end up at the end of the season.

If you’ve not seen these graphics before, they show the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of their average final league position across 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The simulations are generated using each club’s current E Ratings and those of their remaining opponents.

You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table. You can also see how these graphics looked before last night by following the link in the previous paragraph.


CH probabilities 2016-04-12

Middlesbrough‘s win has moved their chances of a top two finish north of 90% while denting Reading‘s prospects of ending the season in the top half. Boro are now four points clear of Brighton, who have a roughly one-in-three chance of usurping either them or Burnley.

The other match saw Leeds extinguish any lingering hopes that overachieving Birmingham had of making a late surge into the play-offs. However their own chances of a top half finish remain relatively slim.

League 1

L1 probabilities 2016-04-12Barnsley‘s win over Oldham keeps them in the race for a play-off place: they’re now just three points behind Gillingham after the Gills lost a close match with Walsall.

The Latics haven’t seen their survival chances dented by much – they remain two points clear of Blackpool with a game in hand over the Seasiders. Walsall‘s win keeps them in the reckoning for automatic promotion, particularly in light of Burton‘s recent struggles.

League 2

L2 probabilities 2016-04-12Luton‘s win over Dag & Red improves their chances of forcing their way into the top half of the table and maintains the likely scenario that the Daggers will drop into the National League.

Notts County‘s victory against Hartlepool doesn’t change much: both are almost certain to end the season somewhere in the bottom half and, most importantly, safe from relegation.

National League


NL probabilities 2016-04-12

Wins for Eastleigh and Braintree are keeping the play-off race interesting, particularly as the latter recorded an unlikely away victory at Grimsby. The two winners now look to be locked in a three-way battle with Tranmere for the fifth play-off place, with Dover‘s draw at Macclesfield giving them an insurmountable-looking six-point cushion.

The relegation battle is equally open, with massive wins for Torquay and Guiseley leaving both looking relatively safe at others’ expense. Altrincham were beaten by the Gulls and now look to be in real trouble, while Kidderminster moved off the bottom of the division with victory over Halifax, who themselves are slipping dangerously close to the bottom four.


Note: In case you’re wondering why the bars aren’t always in perfect descending order, there’s a discussion about this on the blog’s Facebook page here. In a nutshell, it’s to do with which fixtures each club has left: for example, if a club still has to play against weaker teams who can still overtake them, then this will give them a wider spread of possible finishing positions. On one hand there will be more simulations in which they rack up lots of points from those easier games and climb the table, but the downside is that they fall further in the simulations where they lose to a side that moves above them as a result.