Updated probabilities: League 1, 20 Apr 2016

I’ve re-run my E Ratings model after the midweek fixtures last night to see what effect they’ve had on where each League 1 club is predicted to end up at the end of the season.

If you’ve not seen these graphics before, they show the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of their average final league position across 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The simulations are generated using each club’s current E Ratings and those of their remaining opponents.

You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table.

L1 probabilities 2016-04-20

The draw between Burton and Wigan, coupled with a draw for Walsall at home to Swindon, has further cemented the Latics’ chances of securing a top two finish while keeping the Saddlers’ hopes of edging into second alive. Walsall’s game in hand over Burton means that the Brewers cannot afford to drop any more points.

Gillingham looked lucky to rescue a point after being outplayed at Rochdale, with Barnsley’s dominant win opening up the battle for the final play-off spot still further.2016-04-20 Rochdale Gillingham

2016-04-20 Barnsley Peterborough

With the two now level on points and the Gills still having to face two of the current top four, it may be that the Tykes’ trip to leaders Wigan on the final day proves decisive.

The relegation battle tends to go down to the wire in League 1 thanks to the extra-wide trapdoor and this season is no different. While Oldham’s win at Southend looks to have bought them their safety, the three clubs between them and the drop zone are all still in with a chance of slipping into the bottom four. Blackpool and Doncaster both look unlikely to dig themselves out of trouble however, while Colchester are eight points adrift with only nine left to play for and unfortunately appear as good as down.