Updated probabilities: League 2, 20 Apr 2016
I’ve re-run my E Ratings model after the midweek fixtures last night to see what effect they’ve had on where each League 2 club is predicted to end up at the end of the season.
If you’ve not seen these graphics before, they show the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of their average final league position across 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The simulations are generated using each club’s current E Ratings and those of their remaining opponents.
You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table.
The race for the remaining two automatic promotion places remains wide open, with just two points separating Accrington in second from Bristol Rovers in fifth. Rovers and Oxford both had to settle for draws, which allowed Stanley and Plymouth – who won at Leyton Orient – to take advantage.
It’s just as well that there’s plenty to play for at the summit, as the play-off race looks to have been all but decided after last night’s games. Another win for Wimbledon leaves them four points clear and with a game in hand over the chasing pack. Exeter and Orient both lost at home while Wycombe could only draw with Yeovil, although Cambridge’s 7-0 thumping of Morecambe has seen them elbow their way back into contention as a potential beneficiary of any late Dons collapse.
Despite their impressive win over Portsmouth, York unfortunately still look overwhelmingly likely to be heading down. Draws for Stevenage and Newport mean that they require all nine points available and for the Exiles to lose all three of their remaining matches to stand a chance of staying up on goal difference.