League 1 timelines, 14 Aug 2016: Coventry and Bury fall short
A quick explanation
You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.
Returning from last season, here are match timelines for each of the weekend’s matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.
This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching a highlights package. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as we can tell from the limited data available at this level). There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines showing goals scored.
You can browse previous timelines by selecting “VISUALISATIONS > TIMELINES” from the menu.
First of all, here are all of the match timelines side-by-side and using the same vertical scale, which makes it easier to pick out which games saw the most (and least) goalmouth action. I always sort matches by date and then alphabetically by the home team’s name in these posts to make it easier to find a specific one:
Swings and roundabouts this week as both Coventry (top row) and Bury (start of middle row) were unable to turn dominant attacking performances into three points, while both Fleetwood (top right) and MK Dons (middle) hosted 2-2 draws despite neither side in those games putting in particularly compelling performances.
Charlton look to have deserved their second half equaliser here: after a close first half – during which Northampton had taken the lead from their first shot of the game – the home side dominated the second and largely kept their visitors quiet. Barring a late scare the Cobblers weren’t able to cause much trouble for their hosts after the break.
Their penalty just before half time boosted their expected goals tally but this was still a solid – if at times grinding – win for Chesterfield. Neither they nor Swindon were able to consistently create chances, particularly in a relatively dull second half, but the home side look to have deserved their win and had contained their visitors effectively until the final quarter of an hour.
Coventry will be disappointed not to have taken all three points here: they had created sufficient chances to generate a goal before Shrewsbury had even taken a shot. The visitors were also pretty anonymous for much of the second half and should be relieved that their hosts couldn’t take advantage.
This was one of those matches where a combination of sharp finishing and lacklustre defending resulted in far more goals than expected. Neither Fleetwood nor Scunthorpe were able to consistently work the ball into good positions, but nevertheless each managed to net twice. A draw looks to have been a fair result at least, with both racking up chances of similar aggregate quality.
Bury can feel hard done by here: despite falling behind early on they presented by far the more potent threat at Priestfield, but a second half own goal left them with too much to do. Gillingham went long spells without a single shot in both halves – in contrast to their strong showing at Southend on the opening day – and can consider themselves fortunate to have taken anything here, never mind all three points.
A draw appears a fair outcome here, with MK Dons and Millwall creating chances of similar quality in a close match. After four goals rained in during a mad ten-minute first half spell, the second half was a much more sedate affair, although the quality of chances was more or less evenly split.
The two late jumps in Oldham’s line each represent a pair of shots that Walsall’s defence managed to repel in an otherwise fairly dull encounter. Both clubs struggled to threaten with any fluency and, that energetic spell from the home team aside, look to have been heading for a 0-0 draw long before full time. The Latics’ front line was undoubtedly their main weakness last season – they ended the campaign with the worst attacking E Rating in the division – and there are already signs that it may be a problem for them again this time around.
For the second game running Peterborough created chances of lower quality than their opponents, but this time they were punished for it. In fairness, Bradford operated the best-rated defence in the division last season, so were likely to be a tough nut to crack, but their hosts seemed unable to muster a response to the Bantams’ early goal. If anything it was the visitors who raised their game more effectively after the break, running out deserving winners.
This contest looks to have been neck-and-neck for the first hour, with the two sides matching each other very closely. However while Port Vale found a second wind – and with it a second goal to kill the game off – their visitors Southend ran out of steam shortly after half time, failing to get a single shot away for almost the entire 45 minutes.
Sheffield United were fortunate to recover a point here, having offered little in the first half but recovering in the second to grab a late equaliser. Rochdale’s close range effort just before the break had given them the lead but they seemed either unwilling or unable to press their advantage thereafter, allowing their hosts to reassert themselves.
These two teams entered League 1 from different directions but there wasn’t much between them here. Wimbledon started the brighter but couldn’t build on their opening goal and were pegged back by a Bolton side who had previously offered little. Neither club found anything approximating a rhythm after half time but while the hosts threatened more regularly it was their visitors who nabbed a close-range, and fortunate-looking, winner.
There was plenty of goalmouth action as these two newly-promoted sides renewed hostilities, with Oxford perhaps paying for starting and ending this match sluggishly. The visitors had barely gotten their first shot of the afternoon away when Rovers took the lead, but pegged them back with an impressive surge before half time. United were unable to make their better start to the second half count and faded back into obscurity as the hosts side ended the match in the better shape.