Championship timelines, 17 Aug 2016: third time lucky for Burton
A quick explanation
You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.
As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.
This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).
There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.
You can browse previous timelines by selecting “VISUALISATIONS > TIMELINES” from the menu.
First of all, here are all of the match timelines side-by-side and using the same vertical scale, which makes it easier to pick out which games saw the most (and least) goalmouth action. I always sort matches by date and then alphabetically by the home team’s name in these posts to make it easier to find a specific one:
It looks like there was another strong performance from Brighton in midweek, while Burton (in the top right) finally got some points on the board after yet another impressive performance. Leeds and Fulham served up an entertaining draw which should serve as a source of encouragement for both clubs.
Villa looked to be heading for a respectable home win on the hour mark, and even a late Huddersfield rally looked to be contained until a calamitous bit of defending handed the visitors a point. The away side had been almost completely ineffective for the first hour, but were on top for the final 30 minutes as their hosts began to run out of steam.
Brentford’s goal was a rare highlight of an otherwise uneventful first half here, although the home side created the better chances overall. The second half wasn’t much better, with visitors Forest unable to make meaningful inroads in search of an equaliser.
This was a convincing performance from Brighton, although their penalty was their only meaningful-looking contribution to the second half. Rotherham look to have been over-run in the first half and only started to find some attacking fluency in the closing stages of the match.
Sheffield Wednesday’s equaliser from the penalty spot was their sole attacking contribution until almost the stroke of half time, and it was the middle of the second half before they managed to string multiple shots together. Burton by contrast threatened pretty regularly apart from a dry spell between their two first half goals, and look to have been deserving winners overall. After running their opponents close in their opening two league games but finishing both games empty-handed, it was nice to see the Brewers finally hang on for a win.
A score draw looks like a reasonable outcome here. Leeds took longer to get out of first gear but for most of the match both teams gave as good as they got, with both creating sufficient chances to earn their place on the scoresheet. Fulham look to have fired in more chances overall, but of lower average menace than those of their visitors.
Norwich look to have been worthy winners here, even if their goal shortly before half time came from their first dangerous-looking shot of the match. Visitors Bristol City’s efforts were few and far between, with only one shot in the last 50 minutes during which they were ostensibly chasing the game.
Derby’s late winner saw them edge a game which was seemingly low on quality chances. Preston’s best opportunity came just after half an hour but, even though they threatened more frequently after half time, they were otherwise restricted to speculative efforts.
The huge jump in Birmingham’s line came from their missed penalty and the converted follow-up at the end of a relatively quiet first half. Wigan earned their late equaliser, having dominated their visitors in the second half and made their pressure count with a close range effort just before second half stoppage time.
Wolves’ missed penalty was their only meaningful attempt at goal in the first 70-odd minutes of this encounter, while visitors Ipswich’s more regular attempts look to have been mostly from poor shooting positions. There’s not much else to say about a match where a 0-0 draw was probably the correct result.
Despite containing five goals there look to have been quite a few flat periods in this match, particularly during the first half. QPR’s two goals both came from the penalty spot and none of their other chances seemed to be particularly promising, while Bristol City netted with each of their last two shots.
The less said about Shane Duffy’s performance here the better: the Blackburn man scored both of Cardiff’s goals for them and later got himself sent off. This was otherwise a pretty close contest, with the two teams matching each other pretty closely and Blackburn earning their late reply.
A penalty apiece either side of half time ratcheted up the goal count here, with Reading having struggled for chances otherwise. Hosts Newcastle – who were also far more effective finishers in front of their own fans last season – carved out the better opportunities overall, even if the margin of their victory flattered them slightly.