League 1 timelines, 17 Aug 2016: strong showings from Chesterfield and Fleetwood
A quick explanation
You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.
As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.
This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).
There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.
You can browse previous timelines by selecting “VISUALISATIONS > TIMELINES” from the menu.
First of all, here are all of the match timelines side-by-side and using the same vertical scale, which makes it easier to pick out which games saw the most (and least) goalmouth action. I always sort matches by date and then alphabetically by the home team’s name in these posts to make it easier to find a specific one:
There were three 3-0 half-time scores this week, with Charlton and Southend both seemingly content to rest on their laurels while Peterborough continued to attack and were rewarded with two further goals. Meanwhile Chesterfield and Fleetwood each registered convincing wins against seemingly strong opposition.
After rattling in three goals in the space of nine minutes Charlton can be forgiven for sitting back a bit, but it was still surprising to see them take just one shot in the last hour of this match. Visitors Shrewsbury took a long time to get going in each half and – while they arguably did enough to warrant a place on the scoresheet – didn’t create enough to claw their way back into this one.
This looks to have been a deserved – and relatively comfortable – victory for Chesterfield, despite the hosts leaving it late to break the deadlock. Visitors Walsall didn’t ever really get going here and faded from the match almost entirely in a slower-paced second half.
The first half of this one looks to have been very missable, with the home crowd surely frustrated at the lack of forward progress. Bury didn’t offer much themselves until the final quarter of an hour when they sparked into life and laid siege to the Coventry goal for the remainder of the match. The hosts can consider themselves lucky not to have conceded a late goal, although this somewhat balances out their bad luck in not being able to break down Shrewsbury during a far more assured performance last weekend.
Apart from their penalty, Swindon didn’t threaten the Gillingham goal very convincingly here. Their opener from the spot early in the second half sparked their hosts – who look to have peaked too early – into life, with the resulting onslaught sufficient to earn the Gills their equaliser.
This looks to have been the cliched “game of two halves”, with Bradford meeting little resistance as they stormed into a 2-0 lead, before an anonymous second half showing allowed MK Dons to gradually assert themselves and eventually draw blood. The visitors look to have deserved their goal, but left it too late to wrest something from the game.
This doesn’t look to have been a classic: Northampton gave their hosts a scare early on but were anonymous for much of the first half, while Oldham needed half an hour to get out of first gear. The second half was a much more even affair but neither side was able to work the ball into particularly dangerous positions.
As is usually the case when we see a big scoreline, the difference in the underlying chances was far less dramatic. It would be rare for a club to create three goals’ worth of chances in the first half, never mind in the 20 minutes it took Peterborough to rack up a three goal lead. However they look to have deserved the win overall, having threatened much more regularly than Millwall and creating chances of around double the aggregate quality.
With 10 minutes left on the clock it looked as though Port Vale were heading for a fortunate and unspectacular victory. Neither they nor Rochdale had offered much here and both had taken just one shot in the entire second half, with the hosts’ contribution the less compelling, but their late penalty – which they missed – brought the actual and expected scorelines closer together.
Most of the action looks to have been over by the 15-minute mark here, where Southend stunned Bramall Lane with three early goals. The rest of the game looks to have been a dour stalemate, with no further shots in the first half and a few speculative ones in the second, which will surely have frustrated the home fans.
This game looks to have been one of the most entertaining, with almost five goals’ worth of chances raining in. While the match looks to have been pretty even overall, Scunthorpe did the bulk of their attacking before the interval, with their penalty late in the first half doubling their lead. Despite Wimbledon rallying well after half time and creating plenty of chances throughout, they weren’t able to complete a comeback that they would arguably have deserved.
Bolton somehow carved out a two goal lead from a first half low on quality chances, with Bristol Rovers’ close range tap-in from a free kick reducing their visitors’ advantage early in the second half. However neither side were able to create much of note thereafter, leaving the game to grind to a conclusion.
This was a convincing win for Fleetwood, who fired in a steady succession of chances while simultaneously suppressing both the quality and quantity of Oxford’s attempts. The visitors were kept away from the home goal for long periods and were largely reduced to shooting from outside the penalty area.