Championship timelines, 21 Aug 2016: Forest turn on the style
A quick explanation
You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.
As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.
This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).
There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.
You can browse previous timelines by selecting “VISUALISATIONS > TIMELINES” from the menu.
First of all, here are all of the match timelines side-by-side and using the same vertical scale, which makes it easier to pick out which games saw the most (and least) goalmouth action. I always sort matches by date and then alphabetically by the home team’s name in these posts to make it easier to find a specific one:
Both Wolves (top row) and Nottingham Forest (middle) look to have clinched convincing wins thanks to strong second half showings this weekend. Elsewhere Leeds sprung a surprise by beating Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough but look to have deserved their win, while Preston and Newcastle were somewhat more fortunate to register their own away victories.
After Birmingham had taken the lead during an even but relatively low-quality first half, Wolves put their foot to the floor in the second half and significantly out-created their hosts. While Birmingham suffered a red card, this came quite late in the game with Wolves already 2-1 up, so it’s doubtful that the result would have been different without it.
With nine goals scored and nine conceded in their four league matches so far, Burton are certainly living in interesting times. Both halves here saw them start sluggishly before digging out an equaliser late on, but they ultimately look to have been worth at least a point here after out-creating Blackburn overall.
This looks to have been something of a let-off for Newcastle, who didn’t create much after their early goal while hosts Bristol City pushed for an equaliser. However the home side were hardly relentless, having endured long spells either side of half time without shooting and only just scraping together a goal’s worth of chances.
While this match saw a reasonable number of shots, there were few of significant menace and a 0-0 draw was probably fair. Derby started very slowly, with almost half an hour passing before their first attempt at goal, but they made far more effective inroads than Villa after half time.
Fulham’s opener on the stroke of half time capped an otherwise dire-looking first half, with Cardiff in particular struggling to create chances. The visitors look to have been somewhat fortunate to get on the scoresheet – never mind twice – and the home side’s late equaliser was probably the least they deserved.
They may have left it late but Huddersfield look to have deserved their win here. Barnsley were largely contained, barring a bright start to the second half in which they equalised, and the expected and “actual” goals totals are almost identical.
Nottingham Forest’s second half performance here looks to have been stellar, despite only outscoring Wigan 3-2 during it. The home side created by far the better chances and could have won by a wider margin, with their visitors threatening far less often and (seemingly) less effectively.
QPR look to have paid for a sluggish first hour here: although the final 30 minutes saw them rattle in a decent number of chances, they were already 0-2 behind at this point. Preston struck early from the game’s best chance and had their lead doubled for them by an own goal shortly after half time.
Both sides got onto the scoresheet early here, with Reading scoring from their first shot and then gifting Brighton an equaliser from an own goal, with not much else to recommend the first half an hour of this encounter. The hosts took control from that point onwards, seemingly finding their range with a series of speculative efforts as half time approached and breaking out the big guns afterwards. Their out-created visitors will probably be relieved to have taken a point.
It looks like Rotherham opted to cling on to their first half lead, as they barely had a shot after going ahead after half an hour. After a slow start, visitors Brentford rattled in efforts regularly for much of this contest, although the modestly-sized jumps in their line suggest that few were from promising positions.
This was an impressive away performance from Leeds, who kept their hosts relatively quiet – particularly during the middle hour of the game – and created the better chances overall. It looks as though Sheffield Wednesday were jolted into life by their visitors’ opener just after the hour mark, with their line spurting upwards as Leeds’ flatlined, but they were unable to recover and were undone by a second goal from close range.
A score draw looks to have been a pretty accurate reflection of the action here, with Ipswich and Norwich matching each other closely throughout and doing just about enough overall to merit a goal. The combined quality of chances suggests that this wasn’t a classic, but there at least the shots flowed fairly regularly.