Championship timelines, 27 Aug 2016: Owls leave it late
A quick explanation
You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.
As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.
This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).
There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.
You can browse previous timelines by selecting “VISUALISATIONS > TIMELINES” from the menu.
First of all, here are all of the match timelines side-by-side and using the same vertical scale, which makes it easier to pick out which games saw the most (and least) goalmouth action. I always sort matches by date and then alphabetically by the home team’s name in these posts to make it easier to find a specific one:
Barnsley’s big win over Rotherham (top) looks to have been delivered almost entirely in the second half, with Bristol City also getting their act together after the interval to stun Aston Villa. In the middle it looks like a point was the least that Sheffield Wednesday deserved at Brentford, with the Owls creating sufficient chances to have won the game.
Derby look to have paid for a slow start here, with Burton netting early on in a game of few quality chances. The Rams were by far the busier attackers for the final hour of the match – in which Burton had just two shots – but the small jumps in the visitors’ expected goals line suggests that most of their attempts were from relatively poor positions.
After a dull first half Barnsley burst into life, twice netting in quick succession to inflict a heavy defeat on Rotherham. The Millers struggled to work the ball into good positions, with most of their shots looking speculative, and while the margin of victory may have flattered their hosts the outcome certainly didn’t
The first hour of this contest looks to have been both close and unspectacular, with Birmingham the first to raise their game. The hosts doubled their lead from the penalty spot, which in turn sparked Norwich belatedly into life, but despite the Canaries dominating the remaining exchanges it was the Blues’ forwards who did the damage.
Fulham look fortunate to have taken three points from an even and mostly dull encounter, although a draw would still have left Blackburn rooted to the bottom of the division. The Cottagers’ late winner was their first attempt at goal for half an hour – almost as long a dry spell as that which afflicted their hosts before the break.
The Owls’ late equaliser looks to have been the least they deserved here, having created the better chances overall. Both they and then Brentford were reduced to 10 men – the visitors on 73 minutes and the Bees on 88 – with the latter dismissal perhaps creating the breathing space that the hosts needed, given the flatness of their line for much of the game’s closing stages
Villa were stunned by a Bristol City double on the hour mark here, but in truth they were fortunate to be leading in a game of little attacking quality up to that point. While the Robins’ three-goal haul was roughly double their expected goals tally, they out-created their visitors by a sufficient margin to earn the three points.
Reading took a while to get going here but they made the most of a strong showing in the last half an hour to snatch a win here. The result looks to be a harsh one for Cardiff, who created chances of similar combined quality, although as the home side their fans will surely have expected more.
After a season so far defined by substitutes popping up with game-changing goals, it was unusual to see Huddersfield strike early to edge an even contest. The hosts netted what looks to have been the best chance of the match early on and held out as Wolves increasingly got their act together.
Ipswich scored with the first shot of a relatively dull-looking match here, with visitors Preston needing almost twice as long to register their first attempt at goal. Both clubs had similarly lengthy spells without troubling the other’s goalkeeper in a disappointing second half.
Having previously put in some strong performances that suggested they could push for automatic promotion this year, this was a more subdued display from Brighton, exacerbated by a red card less than 10 minutes into the second half. Newcastle were already ahead and cruising by the time their visitors fired in their first shot after more than half an hour of play and, despite a spirited late surge from the depleted visitors, the Magpies held on to a lead they had doubled in the aftermath of the dismissal.
Forest capitalised on a strong start but this was a much more even match after their the first quarter of an hour which led to their opener. The rest of the first half was pretty dull and finishing looks to have been the biggest difference between them and Leeds in an even second period.
These two lines are so close throughout that they’d probably create a nice effect with some cheap 3D glasses. Both clubs had a good chance early in the second half, with the difference being that QPR were able to convert theirs. Otherwise this game had all the makings of a tense 0-0 draw.