National League permutations: 1 Oct 2016

Here are the highest and lowest possible positions that each National League club can occupy after this weekend’s fixtures. I’ve drawn lines under the automatic promotion and play-off spots, mid-table and the last spot above the relegation zone on both “axes” for ease of reference.

These graphics are explained here, but in a nutshell I crunch through every possible combination of results to work out how far it’s mathematically possible for each club to rise and fall.

nl-permutations-2016-10-01

While Barrow are mathematically capable of taking top spot this weekend, it would take a huge swing in goal difference to do so. Even if leaders Dag & Red stumble at Tranmere, which isn’t unlikely, Barrow would need to stun Forest Green on their own turf and may therefore be more worried about how far they could potentially drop.

The three-point gap between Macclesfield in 9th and Boreham Wood in 10th limits how much the two halves of the table can intermingle this weekend, but things are pretty fluid on either side.

While Guiseley will remain rooted to the foot of the table regardless, the other three occupants of the relegation places can all escape at the expense of any of the five clubs hovering gingerly above the drop zone. Everyone from 16th-placed Torquay downwards could occupy one of the four relegation spots come Saturday evening.