League 2 previews, 8 Oct 2016

Below are preview graphics for each of the weekend’s games arranged in a gallery format. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

The ones that interest me the most are:

Exeter v Grimsby is a tough one to predict, with the Grecians’ attack having underperformed massively and surely due some good luck. While the Mariners’ attack is one of the most industrious this seems to have come at the cost of defensive stability, so there could be goals at both ends.

Hartlepool v Crawley pits two of the division’s lowest-rated teams against each other but both sit in respectable league positions, so this game could tell us a lot about what the E Ratings may – or may not – be missing.

Yeovil v Wycome sees two of the division’s lowest-rated attacks face each other and it’s always interesting to see what two quieter teams do when they’re given a more breathing space than usual.