Championship previews, 21-22 Oct 2016

Below are the individual preview graphics for each of the weekend’s games arranged in a gallery format. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

ch-preview-2016-10-21

I’m a bit pushed for time this week so I’m afraid you’ll have to make do with a gallery and a few high-level observations, but I’m aiming to provide more detail in future instalments.

Newcastle and Sheffield Wednesday look the most likely sides to record a win this weekend, with Ipswich’s strong defence sure to be given a tough examination at St James’ Park while QPR’s quiet attack could struggle against a strong Owls rearguard.

The Magpies recently overtook Brighton at the top of the ratings but the Seagulls have a very winnable-looking away trip to Wigan this weekend. Misfiring Derby also look capable of an away win, although much depends on how well the model is assessing their hosts Huddersfield.