League 1 previews, 22-24 Oct 2016

Below are the individual preview graphics for each of the weekend’s games arranged in a gallery format. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.


I’m a bit pushed for time this week so I’m afraid you’ll have to make do with a gallery and a few high-level observations, but I’m aiming to provide more detail in future instalments.

MK Dons have underperformed despite some solid performances this season and the visit of low-ranked Southend makes them favourites to record a win this weekend. Fellow underachievers Millwall, whose leaky defence has sabotaged some otherwise strong showings so far, also look to have a winnable home fixture.

Newly-promoted OxfordNorthampton and Bristol Rovers have adapted well to the third tier and appear the likeliest to record away wins in this round of games. All are travelling to meet some of the division’s poorer performers thus far – I appreciate that might be a surprising thing to say about 6th-placed Port Vale, but they appear to be overachieving massively at the moment.