League 2 previews, 22 Oct 2016

Below are the individual preview graphics for each of the weekend’s games arranged in a gallery format. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

l2-preview-2016-10-22

I’m a bit pushed for time this week so I’m afraid you’ll have to make do with a gallery and a few high-level observations, but I’m aiming to provide more detail in future instalments.

 

Highly-rated Portsmouth look likely to make short work of Notts County thanks to the vulnerable state of their visitors’ defence. One of the few defences performing worse than the Magpies’ is that of Morecambe, who also look set for a difficult afternoon at Colchester.

Crawley appear to have been overperforming so far and therefore they are given an even slimmer chance of overcoming consistently-impressive Accrington than bottom side Newport are of besting leaders Plymouth.