Championship timelines, 22 Oct 2016
A quick explanation
You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.
As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.
This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).
There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.
You can browse previous timelines by selecting “VISUALISATIONS > TIMELINES” from the menu.
I’m away this weekend so only have time to quickly dump the timelines into a gallery with a few quick observations. If you want to see how the model predicted each game you can revisit the previews here.
There were a lot of close matches this weekend, with Brentford, Blackburn, Norwich, QPR, Wigan and Wolves all losing games that the balance of chances suggest they could have drawn.
There were more convincing wins such as Burton‘s televised thumping of Birmingham and Aston Villa‘s impressive containment of Fulham’s usually-industrious attack. Newcastle also looked relatively comfortable in dispatching Ipswich.
Huddersfield and Reading both secured wins with strong performances in the final half an hour of otherwise close and relatively dull encounters.