National League permutations: 29 Oct 2016
Here are the highest and lowest possible positions that each National League club can occupy after this weekend’s fixtures. I’ve drawn lines under the automatic promotion and play-off spots, mid-table and the last spot above the relegation zone on both “axes” for ease of reference.
These graphics are explained here, but in a nutshell I crunch through every possible combination of results to work out how far it’s mathematically possible for each club to rise and fall.
Forest Green‘s lead at the top is unassailable at the moment, but the play-off race is more than interesting enough to compensate. Any of the four clubs beneath the current incumbents can force their way into the top five this weekend.
A glance at the table suggests that 10th-placed Gateshead – three points off fifth and with an impressive goal difference – can do likewise, but with Barrow facing Eastleigh at least one of them will possess a higher points tally whatever happens.
The table is currently split into three mini-leagues, with four-point gaps below Wrexham and Torquay preventing either from falling further this weekend.
The relegation battle is also interesting at the moment, with nobody guaranteed to remain in the bottom four. However for North Ferriby to escape they’d need to beat Woking away by at least five goals.