Championship timelines, 4-5 Nov 2016

A quick explanation

You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.

As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.

This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).

There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.

Individual matches

You can check how the E Ratings model predicted each match would pan out here.

2016-11-04-brentford-fulham

This was another impressive performance from Fulham against a side they weren’t considered likely to beat. Brentford’s defence has looked suspect at times this season but their usually-impressive attack let them down here: failing to muster a single shot in the first half.
2016-11-05-aston-villa-blackburn

Thie was a close match for the first hour, with Blackburn’s opener sparking Villa into life. The hosts’ penalty – which cancelled out Rovers’ opener almost immediately – looks to have made the difference overall, with the two teams otherwise creating a similar number of chances.
2016-11-05-bristol-c-brighton

For a game featuring two attacks that started the season so impressively, this looks to have been quite a quiet game. Both sets of forwards have seen their performances ebb of late and this doesn’t look to have been a convincing win for Brighton, although having scored with their first two shots will have done little to incentivise them to attack further and they kept Bristol City at bay effectively apart from a belated surge.
2016-11-05-burton-barnsley

Burton somehow went unrewarded for a formidable second half display here which demonstrated once again why they’re likely to avoid an immediate return to League 1 and increased my (admittedly slender) concerns about Barnsley’s own prospects of doing so. The Tykes may be three points further from the drop zone than the Brewers but their performances have dipped in recent weeks and they’ll need to break down far tougher defences than this to maintain that margin.
2016-11-05-huddersfield-birmingham

After a few shaky performances this was a match that Huddersfield dominated, alhough most of their shots were from poor positions judging by the tiny jumps in their line. Given the lack of attempts by Birmingham it’s possible that the visitors arrived intent on keeping men behind the ball and playing for the draw, which they rather cheekily nabbed despite having barely troubled their hosts prior to falling behind.
2016-11-05-newcastle-cardiff

This was another convincing Newcastle performance and one in which the chances created and goals scored matched up closely. Cardiff were mostly anonymous in the first half but were much improved in the second and look to have deserved their goal.
2016-11-05-norwich-leeds

This was an impressive away performance from Leeds and seemingly a deserved victory in which they out-created stuttering Norwich. The Canaries’ performances haven’t been in the same league as the top two of Brighton and Newcastle and they were second best here after losing momentum shortly before half time.
2016-11-05-nottm-forest-qpr

QPR had only just taken their first shot of this match when Karl Henry saw red after 34 minutes but Forest were unable to build on their lead in a second half that saw them kept unusually quiet even before Hildeberto Pereira’s dismissal lost them their numerical advantage. Spurred into a late surge that bagged them an equaliser, the visitors ended up creating a similar number of chances overall but mostly from inferior positions and will probably be very happy with a point.
2016-11-05-rotherham-preston

Rotherham are definitely running opponents closer than they did earlier in the season, although once again were denied a sorely-needed win. They matched Preston’s output for 80 minutes here before the visitors’ third goal killed this game off.
2016-11-05-sheff-wed-ipswich

While neither side started this match particularly well, Sheffield Wednesday responded well to falling behind by creating several good chances either side of half time. However, despite barely threatening for over 80 minutes, Ipswich popped up to grab a fortunate-looking victory late on in a mostly dull second half.
2016-11-05-wigan-reading

A quickfire Reading brace early on looks to have stunned Wigan here, with the visitors’ penalty making sure of the win shortly after the hour mark. Despite an improved showing in the second half, the hosts never really got going here and created little of genuine menace.
2016-11-05-wolves-derby

The final scoreline looks to have been closer than the balance of play here, with Derby registering an impressive attacking performance. Despite sharing five goals, both they and Wolves still contrived to go for a long period without shooting, but overall the yield of goals looks consistent with the chances created.