League 1 timelines, 19 Nov 2016

A quick explanation

You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.

As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.

This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).

There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.

Individual matches

You can check how the E Ratings model predicted each match would pan out here.

2016-11-19-bolton-millwall

This looks to have been a close and not particularly free-flowing game, with both sides creating a relatively modest amount of chances. Millwall’s best spell came late in the game when already 2-0 down, but overall they look to have performed well enough to have taken a point home with them.2016-11-19-bristol-r-mk-dons

A draw looks to have been a fair result here, although both clubs could have easily ended up on the scoresheet. While the first half was relatively end-to-end, MK Dons dominated the early part of the second half before the roles were reversed and Bristol Rovers finished the game on top.

2016-11-19-charlton-port-vale

While Charlton dominated the first half sufficiently to have earned a half time lead, they barely threatened after half time as Port Vale controlled the remained of the game. However despite creating sufficient chances to earn a share of the points, the hosts were unable to break down the Addicks’ defence (which has been among the division’s more stubborn this season).
2016-11-19-fleetwood-chesterfield

While Chesterfield created chances of similar aggregate quality to their hosts overall, a big chunk of their final expected goals total came from their penalty. Fleetwood threatened far more frequently overall and were able to contain their visitors after the Spireites had clawed a goal back. 2016-11-19-northampton-peterborough

Northampton can feel a bit hard done by here, having out-created Peterborough overall only to see the Posh snatch a win at the death. However the Cobblers’ dominance was limited to an energetic spell in the middle of the first half, with a good chance late on their only other opportunity of note.2016-11-19-oxford-coventry

Coventry were one of only two more wasteful finishers than Oxford in League 1 going into this match, so both sides getting on the scoresheet will at least have improved their respective shot conversion numbers. The hosts have long looked better than their league position suggests so this will have been a cathartic victory given that the actual and expected scorelines weren’t dissimilar. The Sky Blues’ defence looked to have been riding its luck this season, so there was perhaps some overdue self-correction here too.2016-11-19-rochdale-swindon

While this looks to have been a comfortable win for Rochdale, the first half was a relatively close affair which they were perhaps fortunate to end ahead. There was no such disparity after half time, with the home side in almost complete control and Swindon barely able to threaten at all. 2016-11-19-scunthorpe-oldham

Oldham finished the first half in control here and looked capable of ending Scunthorpe’s 20-match unbeaten home run in the league. However they failed to carry their momentum into the second half and a red card shortly after the hour mark put paid to any remaining hopes of an away win that would have lifted them out of the bottom four. The Iron’s pressure eventually told, allowing them to extend that enviable sequence and maintain a six-point lead at the top of League 1.2016-11-19-sheff-utd-shrewsbury

Two red cards by half time put paid to any lingering hopes that Shrewsbury may have had here, but a spirited second half performance saw them not only shut out Sheffield United but actually reduce the deficit. The Blades created sufficient chances to have enjoyed a similar scoreline to Wimbledon’s this weekend, but were unable to turn a dominant performance into anything resembling a rout.
2016-11-19-southend-bradford

Bradford’s performances have been ebbing for a little while now and this was another disappointing showing for a team that looked capable of winning automatic promotion earlier this season. Southend started far better and look to have deserved their half time lead; even if the final scoreline flattered them slightly they look to have been worthy winners, having gone from the relegation zone to within a point of the play-offs in just six matches.2016-11-19-walsall-gillingham

Gillingham’s late winner came against the run of play and saw them take maximum points from a game in which a 1-1 draw looked a fair outcome. Both teams had scored early but the visitors had been largely anonymous after the break while Walsall pressed for a winner, only for the Gills to pop up and claim the win despite having not taken a shot for over 30 minutes of the second half.2016-11-19-wimbledon-bury

A mad spell in the middle of the first half saw Wimbledon net three times in quick succession, with both clubs adding a goal each before the interval. The second half was far less manic, with the hosts running out deserved-looking winners even if the final scoreline was a bit on the extreme side. Bury’s eight defeats in a row is now the joint-highest in the EFL, along with League 1’s bottom side Chesterfield, and has seen them sink from 2nd down to 18th.