Championship previews, 25-28 Nov 2016

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

ch-probabilities-2016-11-26

The division’s two best-rated teams – Newcastle and Brighton – are at home and have the highest win probabilities by far this weekend.

With bottom – and worst-rated – club Rotherham at home, their visitors Leeds are the likeliest away side to record a win, although underachieving Sheffield Wednesday are narrowly fancied to prevail at Wolves.

Individual matches

I’m a bit short on time this week so don’t have time to comment on all 36 EFL graphics, so I’m afraid I’ve had to unceremoniously dump them into a gallery: