League 1 previews, 26 Nov 2016

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

l1-probabilities-2016-11-26

The division’s best-rated teams are either playing away this weekend or have tough opponents, so – perhaps surprisingly – Walsall are the most likely team to record a win this weekend.

Scunthorpe have a tricky home match against underrated Oxford while the other three members of the “top four” cadre are on the road. Two of those three – Sheffield United and Bradford – are favourites in their games despite being the away side.

Individual matches

I’m a bit short on time this week so don’t have time to comment on all 36 EFL graphics, so I’m afraid I’ve had to unceremoniously dump them into a gallery: