League 1 timelines, 26 Nov 2016

A quick explanation

You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.

As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.

This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).

There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.

Individual matches

You can check how the E Ratings model predicted each match would pan out here.

Afraid I’m a bit pushed for time once again, so there aren’t match-by-match comments for these, although I suspect most people are sufficiently familiar with these to interpret these themselves anyway. The model has been bigging up Oxford for a while and it looks like they could easily have ended Scunthorpe’s unbeaten home run. Meanwhile Chesterfield’s precious win over Bristol Rovers looks like it could have easily gone the other way, not that many Spireites fans will care given its potential importance in their battle for survival.