Championship previews, 16-18 Dec 2016

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.


Sheffield Wednesday are hosting low-rated Rotherham this weekend and therefore have the division’s best chance of recording a home win, while high-flying Brighton have the highest probability of an away victory. The Seagulls’ trip to Birmingham could well be even less exacting if the playing staff were as shocked by Gary Rowett’s dismissal as those outside the club.

Individual matches

I’ve come down with a cold – which I guess I should be thankful to be getting out of the way before Christmas – and so I don’t have the energy to write individual summaries for the graphics this week: