League 2 previews, 17 Dec 2016

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

l2-2016-12-15

Portsmouth have by far the highest chance of a home win as they face struggling Hartlepool, while underachieving Cheltenham’s trip to lowly-rated Morecambe provides the weekend’s most probable away victory.

Individual matches

I’ve come down with a cold – which I guess I should be thankful to be getting out of the way before Christmas – and so I don’t have the energy to write individual summaries for the graphics this week: