League 2 previews, 26 Dec 2016

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.


Mansfield look to have the best chance of a Boxing Day win as they host lowest-rated Morecambe, with Leyton Orient also having a great opportunity to record a win at home to Crawley. The four highest probabilities of an away win all see high-flying teams visiting some of those struggling at the bottom, with Portsmouth heavily fancied to keep Newport rooted to the foot of the table.

Individual matches

Here are the graphics for each game in a gallery format – unfortunately my Christmas kitchen duties mean that there isn’t time to comment on each match individually.