Championship timelines, 26-27 Dec 2016
A quick explanation
You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.
As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.
This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).
There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.
You can check how the E Ratings model predicted each match would pan out here.
It all finally came together for Sheffield Wednesday, who have ranked highly in my rating system for a while without getting the rewards: their win at Newcastle seems not to have owed much to luck. Blackburn can feel a bit hard done by, having created sufficient chances to win their game with Barnsley but ending up with nothing. Neither Ipswich nor Wigan can complain likewise however, having been soundly beaten, with the Latics’ defeat resulting in a precious win for improving Rotherham.