League 2 timelines, 26 Dec 2016

A quick explanation

You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.

As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.

This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).

There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.

Individual matches

You can check how the E Ratings model predicted each match would pan out here.

The highlight has to be Portsmouth’s second half recovery at Newport after going 2-0 down: they rallied superbly to win the game and deservedly so. There was yet more bad luck for Accrington who once again performed well enough to take at least a point but ended up with nothing, continuing to underachieve massively. Elsewhere Hartlepool, Mansfield and Notts County also look as though they could have ended up with more.