League 2 previews, 21 Jan 2017

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.


Grimsby‘s performances have been ebbing lately but the visit of struggling Notts County provides an unmissable opportunity to register a win.

The model isn’t set up to factor in the chaos ensuing at Leyton Orient and Morecambe‘s ratings are on the rise, so I’m not sure that match should be so heavily stacked in the home side’s favour.

Crawley‘s are gradually improving but the model doesn’t fancy their chances even at home to top-rated Portsmouth, who could finally move into the top three this weekend.

Individual matches

Here are the graphics for each game in a gallery format.