E Ratings update: Championship, 11 Feb 2017

Here is the latest update of the season to the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

2017-02-11-ch-sparklinesYou can see how the model assessed the latest round of matches here.

Fulham‘s progress looks to have stalled of late, with their defence continuing to look as vulnerable as their attack does impressive, much like Carlisle in League 2.

QPR gave a good account of themselves despite losing to Huddersfield, continuing their modest recent improvement under Ian Holloway.

Derby aren’t convincing the model at all under Steve McClaren and they dropped two more places after a very fortunate-looking point was salvaged at home to underperforming Bristol City.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

2017-02-11-ch-probabilities

The top two of Newcastle and Brighton were able to consolidate their automatic promotion prospects with wins this weekend, leaving Huddersfield as outsiders despite the Terriers’ own impressive form.

The play-off race is far more open, with Sheffield Wednesday the only other side boasting a significantly greater than 50:50 chance of securing a top six finish.

At the bottom Rotherham‘s failure to defend their lead at home to Blackburn did neither side any favours, while Wigan‘s unfortunate reverse keeps the relegation zone’s current incumbents as the favourites to be occupying it at the end of the season.