E Ratings update: Championship, 15 Feb 2017

Here is the latest update of the season to the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

ch-sparklines-2017-02-15You can see how the model assessed the latest round of matches here.

The changes are over the last seven days so will factor in the weekend matches too.

After orbiting each other at the top of the ratings table for most of the season, Newcastle look to have a definite edge over Brighton now which could prove crucial in the title race and makes the Seagulls marginally more catchable by an improving Huddersfield.

At the bottom of the ratings table, Reading continue to confound. Another win despite being out-created makes them one of the unlikeliest promotion contenders I can remember and I’m still not sure whether they’re on a huge lucky streak or just really, really well organised.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

ch-probabilities-2017-02-15

Newcastle look to have the edge in the title race but Brighton are still comfortably on course for a top two finish despite Huddersfield steaming along behind them.

While Leeds and Reading aren’t impressing to the same extent, their results mean that the likes of Norwich and Fulham will need to raise their game in order to break into the top six at their expense.

At the bottom Rotherham are all but guaranteed to be relegated after another defeat, with a late and perhaps fortunate win for Wigan leaving defeated Blackburn in pretty deep trouble themselves.