League 1 previews, 25 Feb 2017

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

l1-2017-02-25

Bolton aren’t given much chance of winning their game at leaders Sheffield United, with only MK Dons more fancied to record a win this weekend than the Blades.

Interestingly the third most likely victors are an away team: highly-rated Bradford travel to struggling Port Vale. With Oldham and Chesterfield also hosting teams assessed as strong by the model, neither look likely to record a home win either.

Individual matches

Here are the graphics for each game in a gallery format: