E Ratings update: Championship, 26 Feb 2017

Here is the latest update of the season to the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

ch-sparklines-2017-02-26You can see how the model assessed the latest round of matches here.

Newcastle remain the top-rated team in the division as they dominated their draw with Bristol City. Norwich also rose in the ratings table despite drawing as they comfortably out-created Ipswich.

The Tractor Boys’ performances are continuing to decline under Mick McCarthy and it looks like they could need a bit of a summer shake-up to avoid a relegation battle next season.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

ch-probabilities-2017-02-26

Brighton gained a slight edge in the title race as they won while Newcastle were held to a draw. With Huddersfield also drawing their chances of breaking into the top two have reduced slightly.

After being defeated by the Seagulls, Reading look the likeliest of the current top six to be displaced, although they still have a better than 50% chance of making the play-offs. The mixed fortunes of the chasing pack are surely helping here.

The current bottom three still look like being the teams most likely to drop into League 1, with draws for Blackburn and Wigan insufficient to close the gap between them and safety.