League 1 previews, 28 Feb 2017

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

l1-2017-02-28

Rochdale have the evening’s best chance of victory as they host struggling – and low-rated – Port Vale, with both Millwall and Walsall also given a greater than 50% chance of a win. Charlton’s trip to Shrewsbury is the only match in which the away side is considered the favourite, and even then only by a relatively narrow margin.

Individual matches

Here are the graphics for each game in a gallery format: