League 2 trend update, 6 Mar 2017
I thought that it was about time I updated the long-term trend graphics I introduced at the end of December to see how each club is faring and which might be over or under-achieving. These are explained in full here and briefly below.
These are adapted from a very similar design by the excellent Swedish blogger Zorba138 intended to track a club’s long-term performance and whether this was an underachievement or an overachievement based on the balance of chances created.
There are two lines:
- The blue line shows the rolling average of a club’s goal difference over the last 10 league games;
- The red line shows the rolling average of their expected goal difference, based on the quality of chances they’ve created and faced.
Comparing these two allows us to see not only how a club’s performances have changed over time, but also whether there were any differences between the balance of chances created (a useful measure of underlying performance) and goals scored.
These are shaded as follows:
- Blue shaded areas are where goal difference is higher than chances created, suggesting an overachievement;
- Red shaded areas show the reverse, where the balance of chances was healthier than the actual goal difference, signalling underachievement.
Over the long term we’d expect the two lines to converge unless there’s a significant difference in a club’s attacking or defensive skill compared to the average for the division. We can’t tell from the data alone whether skill or luck is the cause, but the longer a difference persists the more I’d suspect the former.
One of the most interesting graphics for me is that of Carlisle, who look to have been making steady progress for about two years before performances (the red line) suddenly dipped alarmingly this season. Results continued to be impressive for a while (the blue shaded area) but eventually reality kicked in. However the more recent red shading suggests that they’re not as bad as their current form makes them appear.