Midweek EFL timelines, 7 Mar 2017

A quick explanation

You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.

As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.

This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).

There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.


It looks like Bristol City did enough to earn their late point at home to Norwich but with Blackburn, Burton and Wigan also adding to their tallies the effect on their survival prospects may be minimal. Fulham also look to have deserved their late equaliser while Preston can perhaps consider themselves fortunate to have done likewise.

Leagues 1 & 2

Walsall and Portsmouth both won convincingly but Sheffield United were made to work for their victory by an Oxford side whose performances have been impressive this season. Blackpool are another team the model admires, although their win over Plymouth looks to have owed more to clinical finishing than dominance.