E Ratings update: Championship, 11 Mar 2017

Here is the latest update of the season to the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

You can see how the model assessed the latest round of matches here.

Some disappointing performances from Newcastle and some better ones from Brighton have seen the gap at the top of the ratings table close – there’s very little between these two at either end of the pitch the moment.

Fulham – who defeated the Magpies this weekend – continue their impressive rise and could soon overtake the Sheffield Wednesday.

The Owls were defeated by an Aston Villa side that are finally starting to click under Steve Bruce, although they were assisted by their visitors being reduced to ten men.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

The top two of Newcastle and Brighton remain the clear favourites to secure automatic promotion, with Huddersfield‘s prospects of breaking their duopoly still modest despite another win.

Another defeat for Reading means that the model expects them to drop out of the play-offs altogether as it stands. However the margins remain fine and another data-defying victory for the Royals would probably be sufficient to nudge them back into contention.

It was a big weekend at the bottom of the table and Wigan‘s defeat to Bristol City – combined with a draw for Blackburn – leaves the Latics in serious danger of relegation.