E Ratings update: League 1, 11 Mar 2017

Here is the latest update of the season to the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.You can see how the model assessed the latest round of matches here.

An impressive performance from Rochdale at MK Dons – despite not securing all three points – saw them rise the most places in the ratings this week.

Meanwhile Charlton‘s relatively limp showing at home to Walsall saw them drop four place in the rankings and beneath the improving Saddlers.

While Chesterfield took a point at Shrewsbury, their disappointing performance continued the decline in their ratings and moved them beneath Port Vale at the bottom of the rankings.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Bolton‘s win at Fleetwood saw them overtake the Cod Army as narrow favourites to join Sheffield United in the final top two.

The model has a relatively firm idea of who will form the final top six, with Oxford needing more wins to close the gap.

Chesterfield and Coventry still look overwhelmingly likely to drop into League 2, with Swindon‘s defeat in their relegation six-pointer at Port Vale leaving them in similar danger.