League 1 previews, 17-18 Mar 2017

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

It looks like being a good weekend for home teams as not a single away side is considered a favourite by the model. Four clubs in particular: Sheffield United, Bristol Rovers, Bradford and Millwall all look very likely to record home victories. Despite their difficult season, Shrewsbury find themselves as the likeliest away winners as they head to relegation strugglers Port Vale.

Most pivotal match

I’m trialling the reintroduction of a graphic I used last season to pinpoint matches that have a lot riding on them according to the model. This week the most pivotal game looks to be Swindon’s visit to Bradford:

A win for the Bantams would make them very difficult to dislodge from the top six while torpedoing the Robins’ survival hopes still further. However an away victory would boost Swindon’s survival chances to around one in four and shaving their hosts’ play-off prospects uncomfortably close to 50:50.

Individual matches

Here are the graphics for each game in a gallery format.