League 1 previews, 1 Apr 2017

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

There’s a slightly reduced schedule this weekend with only 10 matches and most of those look likely to be home wins. Wimbledon are the only away side who are favoured by the model, with their visit to Port Vale looking winnable. Seven of the other nine matches actually have a greater than 50% chance of a home win, so it’s not likely to be a fun weekend for travelling fans overall. Bolton and Fleetwood have particularly winnable home matches, so the promotion race could get even more intense.

Individual matches

Here are the graphics for each game in a gallery format.