What’s still possible: League 1, 2 Apr 2017

With Rotherham’s relegation confirmed yesterday and the season fast running out of matches, I thought it was worth dusting off another post from last year which looked at what was still mathematically possible (no matter how unlikely) in each division.

A quick explanation

I’ve built a tool which narrows down how far each club can move based on the maximum number of points everyone has available and then checks for individual matches that limit how far each club can actually move before recalculating the table. I’ve then plugged the results into my existing permutations graphics to show each club’s range of movement.

If you’re not convinced by anything then there’s a handy tool that you can use to manually check what’s possible yourself.

You’ll notice that this one looks a bit uneven due to clubs having different numbers of matches remaining.

Nine of the current top 10 are mathematically still in with a shot at automatic promotion – the exception is Bristol Rovers, who have played a game extra and can no longer earn enough points.

Only Sheffield United are guaranteed at least a play-off place as it stands, with even 18th-placed Port Vale still technically capable of joining them in the final top six thanks to their extra game in hand.

While Oxford are technically still able to secure a second successive automatic promotion, they’re also not guaranteed to avoid relegation back to League 2. They’re actually one of eight sides that can still leave the division in either direction, with Rochdale also capable of either a top two or a bottom four finish.

While Coventry and Chesterfield are deep in relegation trouble, there are seven other clubs who can technically finish the season at the foot of the table.