E Ratings update: League 1, 2 Apr 2017

Here is the latest update of the season to the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

You can see how the model assessed the latest round of matches here. Bear in mind that the changes above will also include the effect of the midweek games.

A win for MK Dons continued the rise in their ratings while Scunthorpe‘s limp defeat at Millwall saw theirs slip still further.

Southend‘s stock is also steadily rising while a narrow win for Port Vale keeps them near the bottom of the ratings – only struggling Chesterfield are faring worse.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Bolton‘s strong run coupled with Fleetwood’s unlucky home defeat boosts the Trotters’ chances of securing a top two spot.

The clubs currently in the play-off spots look to have a firm grip on them, although Millwall‘s win over Scunthorpe keeps them in contention should one the incumbents slip up.

At the bottom, two of the four relegation spots look nailed on and Swindon still look likely to join Chesterfield and Coventry in League 2 next season despite an unexpected win at Fleetwood. The final relegation place remains completely wide open.