What’s still possible: National League, 3 Apr 2017
With Rotherham’s relegation confirmed this weekend and the season fast running out of matches, I thought it was worth dusting off another post from last year which looked at what was still mathematically possible (no matter how unlikely) in each division.
This is a rare situation when the limited data available at National League level isn’t a hindrance to me including a fifth tier version, so I didn’t want to pass up an opportunity to shine some light below the EFL.
A quick explanation
I’ve built a tool which narrows down how far each club can move based on the maximum number of points everyone has available and then checks for individual matches that limit how far each club can actually move before recalculating the table. I’ve then plugged the results into my existing permutations graphics to show each club’s range of movement.
Anyone down to 9th-placed Macclesfield can still technically claim the title while current leaders Lincoln aren’t even mathematically assured of a play-off finish as things stand.
However the Silkmen’s six-point cushion is sufficient to render both the title and the play-off places out of anyone else’s reach, so there aren’t any insane situations where somebody could still be either promoted or relegated.
Everyone from 10th-placed Wrexham downwards is still a possible relegation candidate, although this would require an insanely unlikely combination of results in many cases.
Apart from the bottom two of North Ferriby and Southport, everyone in the division is capable of a top half finish, while the top eight clubs have already insulated themselves from ending the season in the bottom half of the table.