League 1 previews, 8 Apr 2017
Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.
I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:
- The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
- A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
- Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.
Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.
Only four of the weekend’s 12 matches have the home side as favourites according to the model, with Wimbledon given the best chance of a win. Three away teams in particular – Bradford, Sheffield United and Fleetwood – are strongly fancied to record victories on the road, although the Cod Army’s trip to Oldham is also the likeliest game to end in a draw.
Here are the graphics for each game in a gallery format.