League 2 permutations: 8 Apr 2017
Here are the highest and lowest possible positions that each club can occupy after the forthcoming round of fixtures. I’ve drawn lines under the automatic promotion and play-off spots, mid-table and the last spot above the relegation zone on both “axes” for ease of reference.
These graphics are explained here, but in a nutshell I crunch through every possible combination of results to work out how far it’s mathematically possible for each club to rise and fall.
The top three aren’t going anywhere this weekend but the play-off battle remains wide open. It’s a big weekend for Blackpool who could finish it sitting anywhere between 5th and 12th.
The above shows what’s mathematically possible but doesn’t make any allowances for what’s likely to happen, so I’ve come up with a second graphic that uses my E Ratings prediction model (used to simulate the forthcoming round of games thousands of times) to assign some probabilities to all these potential changes.
It’s structured very similarly to the one above: the clubs are still listed in the same order as the current league table down the side and the dividing lines are all in the same place, but now across each row is the percentage chance of them moving to other positions in the table. As above, green indicates a rise, red a drop and grey staying put. The darker the red or green, the higher the probability. If there’s no number in a square, it means that the club didn’t fill that position in any of the thousands of simulations I ran and is therefore very unlikely.
With Mansfield away at leaders Doncaster while Wycombe and Cambridge host struggling sides at home, it’s likely that the Stags will drop this weekend. Yeovil are also far likelier to fall than rise as they’re away at Portsmouth while Morecambe are at home to Hartlepool.