E Ratings update: Championship, 8 Apr 2017

Here is the latest update of the season to the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

You can see how the model assessed the latest round of matches here. The movement arrows cover the last seven days so will also include the midweek round of fixtures.

Sheffield Wednesday‘s win over Newcastle wasn’t all that surprising given their consistently high ratings this season.

Wolves looked a bit hard done by in defeat at Bristol City and like the Robins have looked far better than their league position this season, so both teams should resist the urge to make big changes over the summer.

It’s still early days but the latest changes at Nottingham Forest look as though they’re working, with their rating ticking upwards promisingly.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Despite their defeat at the weekend, Newcastle look narrowly likelier to claim the title than Brighton due to their easier remaining matches.

The battle for the final play-off place looks to have swung in Sheffield Wednesday‘s favour after their win over the Magpies. While Fulham also won and remain just two points behind with better goal difference, they have trickier fixtures remaining including a trip to Hillsborough.

At the bottom the relegation zone is looking increasingly final despite Wigan‘s win over Rotherham. Thanks to a good week for the clubs just outside the bottom three, the Latics and Blackburn need to recover deficits of seven and four points respectively.