League 1 permutations: 17-18 Apr 2017

What’s possible

Here are the highest and lowest possible positions that each club can occupy after the forthcoming round of fixtures. I’ve drawn lines under the automatic promotion and play-off spots, mid-table and the last spot above the relegation zone on both “axes” for ease of reference.

These graphics are explained here, but in a nutshell I crunch through every possible combination of results to work out how far it’s mathematically possible for each club to rise and fall.

There’s not much movement possible for most clubs, although Millwall and Southend are still tussling for the final play-off place. At the bottom of the table both Port Vale and Swindon can escape the relegation zone at the expense of Shrewsbury and Bury.

What’s likely

The above shows what’s mathematically possible but doesn’t make any allowances for what’s likely to happen, so I’ve come up with a second graphic that uses my E Ratings prediction model (used to simulate the forthcoming round of games thousands of times) to assign some probabilities to all these potential changes.

It’s structured very similarly to the one above: the clubs are still listed in the same order as the current league table down the side and the dividing lines are all in the same place, but now across each row is the percentage chance of them moving to other positions in the table. As above, green indicates a rise, red a drop and grey staying put. The darker the red or green, the higher the probability. If there’s no number in a square, it means that the club didn’t fill that position in any of the thousands of simulations I ran and is therefore very unlikely.

Southend need to better Millwall’s result to overtake them and therefore only have a marginally better than one in three chance of doing so. At the bottom there’s an even smaller chance (around 30%) of anyone leaving the relegation zone during this round of fixtures, as both Port Vale and Swindon are away from home.