League 2 previews, 22 Apr 2017

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

Exeter are heavily fancied to secure the win that would surely cement a play-off place, while Cambridge have a tough assignment in their hunt for a top seven spot at Portsmouth (unless the Pompey players are happy to coast now that promotion has been assured). Carlisle have a good chance to reclaim their place in the play-off zone than away at Crawley.

Individual matches

Here are the graphics for each game in a gallery format.