League 1 previews, 30 Apr 2017

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

If Sheffield United aren’t mentally on the beach then they look very likely to reach the 100-point mark in their final game. Southend and Fleetwood are also heavily favoured in games that are crucial to their promotion efforts. Rochdale could also sneak into the top six but they have the toughest assignment of any home team this weekend with highly-rated Bradford visiting.

Individual matches

Here are the graphics for each game in a gallery format.