Attack breakdowns: Championship, 2016/17
Continuing the immediate splurge of post-season review graphics for the Championship, here are each club’s final attack breakdowns. These are explained in detail here, but in summary they are simple scatter graphics that work as follows:
Each graphic shows a club’s main attacking players: those who have:
- Featured for at least a third of their total pitch minutes in the league this season, and
- Taken an average of at least one shot per game.
The size of each player’s bubble is proportional to the percentage of possible minutes that they’ve played.
Each player’s bubble is plotted on a chart with the two axes working like this:
- On the horizontal axis we have their goal threat, based on the “expected goals” value of shots taken per 90 minutes. This is effectively a measure of the combined quality of their goalscoring chances.
- On the vertical axis we have their scoring rate, using a less abstract measure of actual number of goals scored per 90 minutes.
Both axes exclude penalties, as those can massively skew a player’s contribution away from the threat they pose from open play.
There’s a shaded “stripe” which indicates the long-term shot conversion rate of all finishers except the top and bottom 10%, so we can identify those whose performance may be unsustainable (i.e. unlikely to be repeated next season). If a player is above the stripe, they’re converting chances at a rate consistent with someone in the top 10% of finishers, and likewise a player below the line is in the worst 10%. Based on what we know about the specific player, we can therefore take a view on whether we expect their scoring rate to continue.
Dwight Gayle of Newcastle is setting the standard on both axes here, although the extent to which his goalscoring record outstrips the chances he’s been presented with suggests that he may have enjoyed a bit of a hot streak this season.
A few other teams were heavily reliant on one player for goals, including Aston Villa on Jonathan Kodjia, Bristol City on Tammy Abraham and Leeds on Chris Wood.
I feel a bit sorry for Burton‘s Chris O’Grady, who got on the end of decent chances but really struggled to convert them. Similar problems afflicted Derby‘s Johnny Russell and Wolves‘ Nouha Dicko, so perhaps they’ll all have better luck next time around.