Championship timelines, 19-20 Jan 2018

A quick explanation

You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.

As usual, here are timeline graphics for the latest round of matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.

This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).

There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.

Individual matches

A mad start saw four early goals at Aston Villa, who saw out their win despite Barnsley giving an impressive account of themselves for the remainder of the game. Fulham looked convincing in their demolition of struggling Burton while Brentford emerged more convincingly from a sluggish first half to seal victory at Reading. A quick note on the Leeds game: that huge jump before their second goal was a burst of close-range shots that a future iteration of the model will treat a bit less excitably.