E Ratings update: Championship, 3 Feb 2018

Here is the latest update of the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

Wolves‘ ratings continue to soar at the top of the division while Fulham and Cardiff continue to look strong.

Hull definitely appear to be rebounding under Nigel Adkins, with defensive performances improving in particular, but there’s been no such bounce at Sunderland since Chris Coleman took over.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

It’s looking increasingly likely that Wolves will be returning to the Premier League but the race to join them in the top two remains wide open. Cardiff and Derby are best-placed as it stands, but both have plenty of work still to do.

Preston‘s form has left them looking around two league places better than a few weeks ago, although they still look likelier than not to miss out on the play-offs. Sheffield United and Brentford have seen their own top six prospects almost halve after recent poor results.

If nothing changes then both Burton and Sunderland look set to drop into League 1, but there’s a cluster of four other clubs all looking capable of being dragged into the relegation battle. Birmingham‘s recent improvement has halved their own chances of suffering the drop, but they’re not out of danger yet.